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Investor Yield Index
At a 6.69% 30-year rate on the mid-tier median price, none of the 18 tracked metros clear the 1.2 DSCR most lenders require, and none run a positive cash-on-cash return. Chicago leads the Index at 56 with a 0.78 DSCR and -4.46% cash-on-cash. The cheaper Midwest and Southern metros come closest, the pricier coastal and Sun Belt metros sit furthest behind. Buying below the median is what changes the answer, so each market page shows the entry-tier band next to the median. The Index blends cap rate (30%), gross yield (20%), DSCR (30%), and cash-on-cash (20%). See the methodology.
Where the line falls. At 6.69% financing with 25% down and a 40% expense load on the mid-tier median price, the cheaper Midwest and Southern metros at the top of the list come closest to covering the mortgage. Chicago leads on 0.78 DSCR and -4.46% cash-on-cash, which is the strongest of the set but still short of the lender line. The pricier coastal and Sun Belt metros lower down run a wider monthly shortfall, where a rate buydown, a larger down payment, or a purchase below the median is what closes the gap.
| # | Metro | Median price | Rent/mo | Gross yield | Cap rate | DSCR | CoC | Index | Grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chicago, IL | $359,888 | $2,275 | 7.59% | 4.55% | 0.78 | -4.46% | 56 | B |
| 2 | Memphis, TN | $247,919 | $1,435 | 6.95% | 4.17% | 0.72 | -5.84% | 47 | B |
| 3 | Cleveland, OH | $255,598 | $1,474 | 6.92% | 4.15% | 0.72 | -5.89% | 46 | B |
| 4 | Tampa, FL | $361,156 | $2,020 | 6.71% | 4.03% | 0.69 | -6.34% | 43 | B |
| 5 | Birmingham, AL | $263,726 | $1,462 | 6.65% | 3.99% | 0.69 | -6.46% | 42 | B |
| 6 | Houston, TX | $308,933 | $1,648 | 6.40% | 3.84% | 0.66 | -7.00% | 39 | C |
| 7 | Indianapolis, IN | $297,385 | $1,558 | 6.29% | 3.77% | 0.65 | -7.25% | 37 | C |
| 8 | Orlando, FL | $387,301 | $1,972 | 6.11% | 3.67% | 0.63 | -7.63% | 35 | C |
| 9 | San Antonio, TX | $280,370 | $1,416 | 6.06% | 3.64% | 0.63 | -7.73% | 34 | C |
| 10 | Atlanta, GA | $383,050 | $1,854 | 5.81% | 3.48% | 0.60 | -8.27% | 30 | C |
| 11 | Kansas City, MO | $331,714 | $1,545 | 5.59% | 3.35% | 0.58 | -8.74% | 27 | C |
| 12 | Dallas, TX | $366,701 | $1,673 | 5.47% | 3.28% | 0.57 | -8.99% | 26 | C |
| 13 | Columbus, OH | $335,357 | $1,528 | 5.47% | 3.28% | 0.57 | -9.00% | 26 | C |
| 14 | Charlotte, NC | $390,942 | $1,750 | 5.37% | 3.22% | 0.56 | -9.21% | 24 | D |
| 15 | Las Vegas, NV | $430,436 | $1,748 | 4.87% | 2.92% | 0.50 | -10.28% | 17 | D |
| 16 | Nashville, TN | $457,809 | $1,810 | 4.74% | 2.85% | 0.49 | -10.55% | 15 | D |
| 17 | Phoenix, AZ | $447,054 | $1,733 | 4.65% | 2.79% | 0.48 | -10.75% | 14 | D |
| 18 | Austin, TX | $426,944 | $1,653 | 4.65% | 2.79% | 0.48 | -10.76% | 14 | D |
Prices are the Zillow mid-tier median, the middle third of each metro by value, with rents from the Zillow rent index across 18 metros. Scores are model estimates using fixed assumptions (25% down, 3% closing, 40% expense load, 30-year amortization) at the 6.69% Freddie Mac PMMS 30-year average. Not an appraisal or a loan offer.
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How to read the Index
Grades are relative, not a verdict on any single deal. They rank the 18 tracked metros against each other on a mid-tier median purchase, so a high grade means a market asks less of you than its peers, not that it pays you. At today's rate the whole set runs cash-flow negative at the median.
Grade A (60 and up)
Reserved for metros that cover the debt at the median price. At the current 6.69% rate no tracked metro reaches this band, which is the honest state of the market rather than a gap in the data.
Grade B (42 to 59)
The strongest of the set today, led by Chicago at a 0.78 DSCR. Rent covers most of the debt but not all of it, so closing the gap takes a rate buydown, a larger down payment, or a purchase below the median.
Grade C (25 to 41)
Marginal. Works only with aggressive assumptions, and reads better as an appreciation play than a cash-flow buy.
Grade D (under 25)
Deeply cash-flow-negative at prevailing rates. These are appreciation markets where rent does not come close to covering the debt.